Gut Prediction

2025 Newfoundland & Labrador Provincial Election

Date: July 20th 2025

Projected Provincial Results

Liberal

Vote44.7%Seats19

P. Conservative

Vote43.5%Seats17

NDP

Vote8.3%Seats2

Other

Vote3.5%Seats2

Interactive Projection Map

The original page linked out to the interactive district projection map.

Open Interactive Map

Popular Vote by Region

Province-wide

St. John's City

St. John's Suburbs

St. John's Metropolitan Area

Avalon Peninsula

Avalon excluding St. John's CMA

Eastern/Central Newfoundland

Western Newfoundland

Labrador

Regional Vote Share

2025 NL Provincial Election Results					Change from 2021 Election (pp)
Region	% Liberal	% PC	% NDP	% Other	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other
Provincial Result	44.7	43.5	8.3	3.5	-3.6	+4.7	+0.3	-1.4
St. John's City	48.9	24.0	27.0	0.0	+0.1	-1.8	1.9	-0.2
St. John's CMA	45.4	33.5	16.1	5.1	+2.4	-1.5	-0.2	-0.7
Suburban St. John's	42.6	41.0	7.4	9.1	+5.5	-3.2	+0.1	-2.3
Avalon	47.7	36.8	12.1	3.5	+1.4	-0.1	-0.5	-0.8
Avalon (minus St. John's CMA)	52.7	44.1	3.3	0.0	-1.8	+2.4	-0.1	-0.5
Eastern/Central NL	41.6	56.0	2.3	0.1	-4.0	+5.0	0.0	-1.0
Western NL	41.7	43.4	4.3	10.7	-10.7	+8.8	+2.5	-0.5
Labrador	41.2	37.5	21.2	0.0	-8.3	+13.0	-4.5	-0.3

Regional Seat Count

2025 NL Provincial Election Results					Change from 2021 Election
Region	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other
Provincial Result	19	17	2	2	-3	+4	0	0
St. John's City	5	0	2	0	-1	0	+1	0
St. John's CMA	8	2	2	1	0	-2	+1	0
Suburban St. John's	3	2	0	1	+2	-2	0	0
Avalon	11	4	2	1	+1	-2	+1	0
Avalon (minus St. John's CMA)	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eastern/Central NL	3	8	0	0	-3	+3	0	0
Western NL	3	3	0	1	-2	+2	0	0
Labrador	2	2	0	0	0	+1	-1	0